Positioning for a USD/JPY breakout 💹

Trade idea: USD/JPY long

Direct from the desk of Dane Williams,

This is not your average forex broker email.


Afternoon team,

Over on the blog in today’s daily market analysis, I spoke about the way that USD/JPY has moved to the top of its daily channel, with plenty of bullish momentum behind it.

The USD/JPY daily chart (if you missed today’s analysis, then click the link above to check it out), shows price now above the horizontal support/resistance zone that we’ve been watching for weeks, as well as now poking through channel resistance.

All signs are pointing to the bulls being in control!

And it’s this bullish momentum that I want to take advantage of, seeing an opportunity for us to possibly get long.

I now want you to bring up an intraday, USD/JPY hourly chart.

USD/JPY Hourly:

Here’s an extract from today’s daily market analysis:

“The pair then gapped down to open the fresh week on Monday, but was immediately bid back to the highs where we now remain.

Channel resistance becomes the next hurdle, but I really do like the way that price gapped down into our higher time frame support/resistance zone and then was immediately bid.

It's a good sign for USD/JPY bulls.”

The USD/JPY hourly chart above, shows exactly what I was talking about there on the blog - The gap down to start the new week and then price moving straight back to swing highs.

It’s all there.

With price above both higher time frame, horizontal support/resistance and now also pushing through the channel, I like the idea of riding momentum and trading USD/JPY from the long side.

As my price action strategy dictates, I then identify an area of short term resistance that will be retested as support for a long entry. A pattern that’s already played out and has been marked by the grey box on the hourly chart above.

With that being your USD/JPY long entry, risk management is also fairly straightforward. The higher time frame, horizontal support/resistance zone is there just below, to place stops below.

If it goes below there, you know you’re wrong and It’s time to bail.

Do you have any questions about this setup or my analysis? Hit reply to this email and let me know. I read and get back to anyone in my Inner Circle who takes the time to chat.

Best of probabilities to you,

Dane.

Isn't hindsight easy 🦘

Trade analysis: AUD/USD trade

Direct from the desk of Dane Williams,

This is not your average forex broker email.


Evening team,

We’ve been following AUD/USD above daily resistance on the blog for the last week or so.

I then sent that AUD/USD trade musings email to you guys in my Inner Circle ⭕️, featuring the following Aussie chart.

AUD/USD Hourly:

You can see that price had bullish momentum on the hourly. It was retesting every piece of previous short term resistance as support and continuing to step up higher.

At an intraday level, everything looked pretty bullish.

But on the higher time frame, daily chart, the Aussie was sitting right inside a major resistance zone. Those solid lines are from the daily chart and if you read the blog, should be on your chart.

As a result of the higher time frame taking precedence, I was looking to short AUD/USD.

Silly boy…

AUD/USD Hourly Updated:

As per my original analysis, I let myself get stopped out as price made a new high. A new high that is above higher time frame support/resistance and open to bullish momentum really taking hold.

I took the L and moved on.

But it is frustrating to look back at my analysis and see those two hourly charts above that really look so bullish.

In hindsight, the conservative move should have been to wait for new intraday lows to have been made, therefore confirming that the higher time frame resistance zone had in fact held.

Instead, I was too aggressive, taking a short at the first sign of weakness. Something that proved to be a false signal in the end.

Do you have any questions about this setup or my analysis? Hit reply to this email and let me know. I read and get back to anyone in my Inner Circle who takes the time to chat.

Best of probabilities to you,

Dane.

How I'm trading AUD/USD 🦘

Direct from the desk of Dane Williams,

This is not your average forex broker email.


Afternoon team,

After highlighting that AUD/USD had reached higher time frame resistance on the blog, I then discussed potential plans of attack inside my Inner Circle ⭕️.

Here’s the higher time frame suport/resistance zone we have been watching.

AUD/USD Daily:

You can see that price has come back to retest the previous area of support, this time potentially as resistance.

Our whole question has been whether we think that it is actually holding as resistance, or whether it’s going to go straight back above.

Well now zoom into an intraday, hourly chart and take a look at the price action:

AUD/USD Hourly:

You can see that price has poked its head through the top of the higher time frame zone, but on the daily its just wicks.

Price now failed to make a new higher high on the hourly and this is our chance to take a high risk:reward short from the setup.

Do you have any questions about this setup or my analysis? Hit reply to this email and let me know. I read and get back to anyone in my Inner Circle who takes the time to chat.

Best of probabilities to you,

Dane.

AUD/USD Trade Musings 🦘

Direct from the desk of Dane Williams,

This is not your average forex broker email.


Afternoon team,

Did you read today’s daily market analysis on the blog? I took a look at the AUD/USD higher time frame resistance zone that price has now pulled back to test.

Just so you have it here too, here is the important AUD/USD daily chart from the analysis.

AUD/USD Daily:

So you may have finished reading today’s blog and thought “well that didn’t tell me jack shit about whether price is above or below the zone.”

Yes, I left things quite ambiguous on the blog because quite frankly, we don’t know which way the market is going to go yet.

Price is retesting higher time frame support/resistance. That’s all price has told us!

If the zone holds, then we will zoom in and look for intraday, short term support turned resistance to short off.

If the zone is broken out of, then we will zoom in and look for intraday, short term resistance turned support to buy into.


What I did want to highlight for you, is the recent intraday price action in AUD/USD and then talk about trading it.

Zoom into your intraday charts such as the hourly below. I’ve also got the MT4 period separators in so each day’s price action is clear.

AUD/USD Hourly:

So what are we looking at here?

Well, you can see that on Friday, price pretty much rallied all day.

Price then stalled just before NFP, printing the short term resistance level on the hourly that we would look to then be retested as support to confirm a low risk long entry.

Pause for the weekend…

We then open up again on Monday, price drops back into our short term resistance and retests it as support.

Normally, this would be the exact scenario I’d look for in order to get long. But you can see that price is smack bang inside that higher time frame resistance zone…


So, where does that leave us, in terms of trading AUD/USD?

All that matters is how you view the higher time frame support/resistance zone from the daily chart above.

  1. You think a break of the bottom line is enough to say that price is back above higher time frame support/resistance, so that intraday setup is prime to be immediately longed.

  2. You’re of the opinion that price is right smack bang in the middle of a greater resistance zone, so there’s no way in the world that this is a long just yet.

If you’re a number 1, then you’re using the above intraday scenario to get long.

If you’re a number 2, then you’re going to wait and see if price in fact drops back below the higher time frame resistance zone and then you’re going to look to short it.


Do you have any questions about this setup or my analysis? Hit reply to this email and let me know. I read and get back to anyone in my Inner Circle who takes the time to chat.

Best of probabilities to you,

Dane.

Tell me your Gold shorts survived! 🥇

Direct from the desk of Dane Williams,

This is not your average forex broker email.


Afternoon team,

I’ve today blogged an update to the Gold market narrative, highlighting the fact that Gold was instantly rejected from the weekly resistance zone we’ve been watching.

So to answer the question I posed in Wednesday’s email - Yes, Gold is about to drop.

Take a look at a comparison of the charts

XAU/USD 4 Hourly:

Updated XAU/USD 4 Hourly:

It wasn’t the cleanest move, with price poking its head through the swing high resistance we were using to manage our risk by barely a couple of pips.

If you got stopped out here, then I can empathise with your pain right now. It happens to the best of us. But as you can see by the subsequent price action, the setup did play out.

Just not in a straight line…

With price now below the weekly resistance zone, we’re now looking for short term support areas to form on the hourly and for them to be shorted into when retested as resistance.

This is where we’ll look to add into our shorts (or go again if you were one of the unlucky few), and try to possibly build a bigger position without having to add to our risk.

Do you have any questions about this setup or my analysis? Hit reply to this email and let me know. I read and get back to anyone in my Inner Circle who takes the time to chat.

Best of probabilities to you,

Dane.

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